| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 75.4% | 89% | -13.9% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 92.4% | 98% | -5.7% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 91.5% | 98% | -6.2% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.3% | 79% | -18.4% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.5% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 79.6% | 13.6% | 6.8% |
| xgboost | 73.7% | 19.4% | 6.9% |
| logistic | 80.1% | 14.1% | 5.8% |
| Paris Saint Germain | Troyes | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1888 | 1552 |
| Surface Elo | 1888 | 1552 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.70 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.67 | 0.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Rest days | 8 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 5 W | 0 W · 1 D |
| 03 Nov | A | Villarreal | 6 - 0 | W |
| 30 Oct | A | Le Havre | 5 - 1 | W |
| 30 Oct | A | Le Havre | 5 - 1 | W |
| 26 Oct | H | Lyon | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Barcelona | 4 - 2 | W |
| 31 Oct | H | Le Mans | 2 - 0 | W |
| 31 Oct | H | Le Mans | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Oct | A | Toulouse | 0 - 0 | D |
| 25 Oct | A | Toulouse | 0 - 0 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Lens | 1 - 3 | L |
| 07 May 2023 | Troyes | 1 - 3 | Paris Saint Germain |
| 29 Oct 2022 | Paris Saint Germain | 4 - 3 | Troyes |
| 08 May 2022 | Paris Saint Germain | 2 - 2 | Troyes |
| 07 Aug 2021 | Troyes | 1 - 2 | Paris Saint Germain |
| 03 Mar 2018 | Troyes | 0 - 2 | Paris Saint Germain |
| 29 Nov 2017 | Paris Saint Germain | 2 - 0 | Troyes |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 23.28 | 4.3% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 11.36 | 8.8% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.12 | 89.3% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.27 | 78.7% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 4.00 | 25.0% | 06 Nov 06:15 |