| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 47.1% | 38% | +9.4% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.0% | 78% | -3.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 59.1% | 51% | +7.8% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.7% | 60% | -7.6% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 53.7% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 34.7% | 26.0% | 39.3% |
| xgboost | 35.1% | 27.9% | 37.0% |
| logistic | 39.4% | 28.9% | 31.7% |
| Milton Keynes Dons | Reading | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1519 | 1516 |
| Surface Elo | 1519 | 1516 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.86 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.14 | 2.13 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.43 | 1.25 |
| Rest days | 22 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 06 Oct | H | Brentford | 7 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Crawley Town | 4 - 1 | W |
| 17 Sep | A | AFC Wimbledon | 0 - 0 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Peterboro | 1 - 1 | D |
| 05 Sep | A | Wycombe | 3 - 3 | D |
| 09 Oct | H | Norwich | 2 - 3 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Bradford | 1 - 1 | D |
| 03 Oct | H | Bradford | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 Sep | A | Wycombe | 2 - 2 | D |
| 26 Sep | A | Wycombe | 2 - 2 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.75 | 36.4% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.70 | 58.8% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.55 | 39.2% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.65 | 37.7% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.65 | 60.6% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |