| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 56.4% | 61% | -4.6% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 81.6% | 84% | -2.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 74.6% | 78% | -3.9% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.4% | 62% | +1.3% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 50.0% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 56.4% | 23.9% | 19.7% |
| xgboost | 61.8% | 20.2% | 18.0% |
| logistic | 53.3% | 26.6% | 20.1% |
| Toulouse | Troyes | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1664 | 1529 |
| Surface Elo | 1664 | 1529 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.50 | 0.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 2.50 |
| Rest days | 8 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 0 W · 3 D |
| 16 Oct | A | Le Mans | 3 - 0 | W |
| 16 Oct | A | Le Mans | 3 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Monaco | 2 - 2 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Monaco | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Le Havre | 3 - 2 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Lens | 1 - 3 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Lens | 1 - 3 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Marseille | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Marseille | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Angers | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Feb 2023 | Toulouse | 4 - 1 | Troyes |
| 14 Aug 2022 | Troyes | 0 - 3 | Toulouse |
| 06 Feb 2021 | Troyes | 1 - 1 | Toulouse |
| 03 Oct 2020 | Toulouse | 0 - 0 | Troyes |
| 27 Jan 2018 | Toulouse | 1 - 0 | Troyes |
| 09 Sep 2017 | Troyes | 0 - 0 | Toulouse |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.22 | 19.2% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.36 | 22.9% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.64 | 61.0% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.61 | 62.1% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.35 | 42.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |