| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 63.3% | 70% | -6.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 38.7% | 61.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 33.7% | 66.2% |
| logistic | 33.8% | 66.2% |
| Eduardo Ribeiro | Lautaro Midon | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1507 | 1694 |
| Surface Elo | 1507 | 1694 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.17 | 1.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.83 | 0.80 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 08 Oct | A | Gustavo Heide | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Samuel Heredia | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Lautaro Midon | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Gustavo Heide | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Samuel Heredia | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Jose Pereira | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Eduardo Ribeiro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Eduardo Ribeiro | 0 - 2 | Lautaro Midon |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.43 | 69.9% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.70 | 37.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |