OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-09-26
⚽ National League · Saturday 26 September 2026, 14:00 UTC · finished
Aldershot 1.60 5 - 1 0.80 Tamworth
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 48.1%41%+6.9%✓ hit
DCHome or away 75.2%81%-5.6%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 60.0%55%+4.8%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 52.4%65%-12.5%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 54.4%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson44.1%22.6%33.3%
xgboost33.5%31.2%35.3%
logistic37.1%27.2%35.7%
Inputs the models saw
AldershotTamworth
Elo (pre-match)13901422
Surface Elo13901422
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.600.80
Form trend0.40-0.50
Season points per game1.670.89
Season goals for / game1.111.78
Season goals against / game0.782.56
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)0 W2 W · 2 D
Aldershot: last 5
19 SepABarrow0 - 1L
19 SepABarrow0 - 1L
15 SepHYeovil1 - 1D
12 SepASolihull2 - 1W
05 SepHHalifax1 - 0W
Tamworth: last 5
19 SepHWealdstone2 - 1W
19 SepHWealdstone2 - 1W
15 SepASouthend1 - 3L
12 SepAHarrogate1 - 3L
05 SepHBoston Utd2 - 2D
Head to head
14 Feb 2026Tamworth1 - 1Aldershot
18 Oct 2025Aldershot1 - 2Tamworth
25 Jan 2025Aldershot2 - 2Tamworth
26 Aug 2024Tamworth3 - 2Aldershot
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away2.4041.7%26 Sep 15:00
Bet3651X2draw3.6027.8%26 Sep 15:00
Bet3651X2home2.5040.0%26 Sep 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.5365.4%26 Sep 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.4041.7%26 Sep 15:00
SportyBet1X2away2.5539.2%26 Sep 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.7027.0%26 Sep 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.4540.8%26 Sep 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.5564.5%26 Sep 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.4041.7%26 Sep 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 19:27 UTC