| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 71.4% | 78% | -6.1% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 61.8% | 38.2% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 72.0% | 27.9% |
| logistic | 68.4% | 31.6% |
| Carlos Taberner | Benjamin Hassan | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1650 | 1497 |
| Surface Elo | 1650 | 1497 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.88 | 0.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 0.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 9 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 02 Oct | A | Samuele Pieri | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Massimo Giunta | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Elmer Moller | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Samuele Pieri | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Massimo Giunta | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Ryan Nijboer | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | A | Rafael Izquierdo Luque | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Zsombor Piros | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Zsombor Piros | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Pol Martin Tiffon | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Jul 2025 | Benjamin Hassan | 1 - 2 | Carlos Taberner |
| 08 Apr 2024 | Benjamin Hassan | 2 - 1 | Carlos Taberner |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.40 | 29.4% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.29 | 77.5% | 11 Oct 06:15 |