OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-03
⚽ National League · Saturday 03 October 2026, 14:00 UTC · finished
Southend 1.60 3 - 1 1.80 Fylde
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 56.6%56%+0.9%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 80.5%81%-0.9%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 73.2%73%+0.2%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 61.6%69%-7.6%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 59.7%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson59.4%20.9%19.8%
xgboost67.1%16.3%16.6%
logistic64.3%21.6%14.1%
Inputs the models saw
SouthendFylde
Elo (pre-match)15541410
Surface Elo15541410
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.601.80
Form trend0.300.60
Season points per game1.911.82
Season goals for / game2.361.91
Season goals against / game1.551.36
Rest days23
Head-to-head (last 10)2 W2 W · 0 D
Southend: last 5
30 SepAEastleigh1 - 1D
30 SepAEastleigh1 - 1D
26 SepHBarrow2 - 4L
26 SepHBarrow2 - 4L
19 SepAGateshead6 - 1W
Fylde: last 5
29 SepHCarlisle0 - 2L
29 SepHCarlisle0 - 2L
26 SepABoston Utd1 - 0W
26 SepABoston Utd1 - 0W
19 SepHAltrincham1 - 2L
Head to head
28 Jan 2025Southend2 - 0Fylde
17 Sep 2024Fylde2 - 1Southend
13 Apr 2024Fylde0 - 2Southend
23 Sep 2023Southend1 - 2Fylde
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away3.6027.8%03 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2draw4.1024.4%03 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2home1.7557.1%03 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.3076.9%03 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under3.5028.6%03 Oct 15:00
SportyBet1X2away3.5028.6%03 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.9025.6%03 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.9052.6%03 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.4569.0%03 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.7037.0%03 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 18:17 UTC