OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-11-14
⚽ England League One · Saturday 14 November 2026, 15:00 UTC · scheduled
Milton Keynes Dons 2.40 15:00 1.00 Burton
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 54.8%59%-4.0%
DCHome or draw 79.2%83%-4.0%
DNBHome (DNB) 71.7%77%-5.1%
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 55.7%60%-4.6%
BTTSBTTS yes 55.8%no line
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson53.6%24.4%22.0%
xgboost54.5%24.6%20.9%
logistic54.4%26.6%19.0%
Inputs the models saw
Milton Keynes DonsBurton
Elo (pre-match)15431469
Surface Elo15431469
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.401.00
Form trend-0.30-0.20
Season points per game2.001.13
Season goals for / game2.331.00
Season goals against / game1.671.38
Rest days1414
Head-to-head (last 10)3 W2 W · 3 D
Milton Keynes Dons: last 5
10 NovABromley2 - 1W
07 NovHSwindon2 - 1W
31 OctHDoncaster6 - 1W
31 OctHDoncaster6 - 1W
27 OctHBromley4 - 1W
Burton: last 5
10 NovHNotts County0 - 3L
07 NovHAFC Rushden And Diamonds4 - 0W
31 OctAWycombe0 - 2L
31 OctAWycombe0 - 2L
24 OctHLeyton Orient2 - 1W
Head to head
07 May 2023Burton0 - 0Milton Keynes Dons
03 Dec 2022Milton Keynes Dons1 - 1Burton
25 Jan 2022Burton0 - 1Milton Keynes Dons
20 Nov 2021Milton Keynes Dons1 - 0Burton
20 Mar 2021Burton1 - 2Milton Keynes Dons
12 Dec 2020Milton Keynes Dons1 - 1Burton
14 Jan 2020Burton1 - 0Milton Keynes Dons
05 Oct 2019Milton Keynes Dons0 - 3Burton
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away4.7021.3%12 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.1024.4%12 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.7058.8%12 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.6660.2%12 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.2045.5%12 Nov 06:15
Generated 2026-11-12 21:43 UTC