| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 62.3% | 63% | -0.5% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 71.1% | 28.9% |
| logistic | 58.9% | 41.1% |
| Felix Gill | Jonas Forejtek | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1601 | 1492 |
| Surface Elo | 1601 | 1492 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.75 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 24 Sep | H | Iliyan Radulov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Alexander Vasilev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Jonas Forejtek | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Iliyan Radulov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Alexander Vasilev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Maxime Chazal | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Sebastian Gima | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Max Alcala Gurri | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Adrian Andreev | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Felix Gill | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Felix Gill | 0 - 2 | Jonas Forejtek |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.59 | 62.9% | 25 Sep 06:15 |