| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 50.8% | 47% | +3.7% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 77.6% | 76% | +2.0% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 67.3% | 65% | +2.4% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.8% | 54% | +3.0% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.5% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 46.6% | 27.4% | 26.0% |
| xgboost | 52.3% | 24.1% | 23.7% |
| logistic | 50.0% | 27.1% | 22.9% |
| Bournemouth | Sunderland | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1740 | 1669 |
| Surface Elo | 1740 | 1669 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| Season points per game | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.17 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.17 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 15 Oct | H | Sturm Graz | 3 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Plymouth | 6 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Chelsea | 1 - 5 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Chelsea | 1 - 5 | L |
| 20 Sep | H | Liverpool | 0 - 1 | L |
| 15 Oct | A | SCU Torreense | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Brighton | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Brighton | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | A | Sheffield Weds | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Accrington | 3 - 3 | D |
| 28 Feb 2026 | Bournemouth | 1 - 1 | Sunderland |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Sunderland | 3 - 2 | Bournemouth |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 4.20 | 23.8% | 18 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.10 | 32.3% | 18 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.05 | 48.8% | 18 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.38 | 42.0% | 18 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.57 | 63.7% | 18 Oct 14:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.59 | 27.9% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.49 | 28.6% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.20 | 45.5% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.92 | 52.1% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.92 | 52.1% | 18 Oct 06:15 |