| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 51.1% | 47% | +4.6% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 45.6% | 54.4% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 44.3% | 55.7% |
| logistic | 56.1% | 43.9% |
| Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | Samuele Pieri | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1486 | 1434 |
| Surface Elo | 1486 | 1434 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 14 | 49 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Sep | H | Lukas Neumayer | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Samuele Pieri | 2 - 0 | W |
| 18 Sep | A | Alex Barrena | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Sep | A | Tommaso Compagnucci | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Sep | A | Alex Barrena | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Sep | A | Alex Barrena | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | A | Alex Barrena | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | A | Gabriele Piraino | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Aug | A | Gerard Campana Lee | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | 2 - 0 | Samuele Pieri |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.15 | 46.5% | 21 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.66 | 60.2% | 21 Sep 06:15 |