| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 57.2% | 33% | +23.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 39.7% | 60.3% |
| logistic | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Raphael Perot | Daniil Ostapenkov | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1475 | 1505 |
| Surface Elo | 1475 | 1505 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 22 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | A | Daniil Ostapenkov | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | H | Robin Bertrand | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Gauthier Onclin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | Mika Brunold | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | A | Dominic Stricker | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Quinn Vandecasteele | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Abdullah Shelbayh | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Raphael Perot | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Timo Legout | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug | H | Florent Bax | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Daniil Ostapenkov | 2 - 1 | Raphael Perot |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.00 | 33.3% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.35 | 74.1% | 29 Sep 06:15 |