| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 47.9% | 29% | +19.2% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 79.7% | 79% | +0.5% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 58.4% | 38% | +20.5% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.5% | 65% | -2.4% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 58.0% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 54.4% | 24.7% | 20.9% |
| xgboost | 42.7% | 27.9% | 29.4% |
| logistic | 31.4% | 11.2% | 57.4% |
| Bury | Harrogate | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1540 | 1452 |
| Surface Elo | 1540 | 1452 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 2723 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 03 Oct | H | Bromsgrove Sporting | 2 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Gainsborough Trinity | 3 - 3 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Workington AFC | 5 - 1 | W |
| 04 May | H | Port Vale | 1 - 1 | D |
| 30 Apr | A | Tranmere | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Woking | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Woking | 1 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Hornchurch | 3 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Hornchurch | 3 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Hartlepool | 1 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.94 | 51.5% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.60 | 27.8% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.54 | 64.9% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.45 | 40.8% | 17 Oct 06:15 |