| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.5% | 61% | -2.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 67.3% | 32.7% |
| logistic | 59.6% | 40.4% |
| Matthew William Donald | Carlos Sanchez Jover | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1642 | 1536 |
| Surface Elo | 1642 | 1536 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.40 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.80 | 1.17 |
| Rest days | 1 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Oct | H | Javier Barranco Cosano | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Filippo Romano | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Maxim Zhukov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Carlos Sanchez Jover | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Oct | H | Gabriele Pennaforti | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Matthew William Donald | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Marvin Moeller | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Marvin Moeller | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Yanaki Milev | 0 - 1 | L |
| 08 Oct | H | Lorenzo Giustino | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Carlos Sanchez Jover | 1 - 2 | Matthew William Donald |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.20 | 45.5% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.64 | 61.0% | 20 Oct 06:15 |