| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 65.0% | 74% | -9.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 62.5% | 37.5% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 61.9% | 38.0% |
| logistic | 62.7% | 37.3% |
| Alejandro Moro Canas | Pedro Vives Marcos | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1665 | 1505 |
| Surface Elo | 1665 | 1505 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 01 Oct | H | Bruno Pujol Navarro | 1 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | David Naharro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Jay Clarke | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Sep | H | Oriol Roca Batalla | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Tim Handel | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Sergi Fita Juan | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | A | Talan Lopatic, Luka | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Sep | A | Tim Handel | 2 - 0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | Hugo Dellien | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug 2026 | Alejandro Moro Canas | 1 - 2 | Pedro Vives Marcos |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.95 | 33.9% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.35 | 74.1% | 02 Oct 06:15 |