OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-11-07
⚽ England Championship · Saturday 07 November 2026, 15:00 UTC · finished
Birmingham 2.40 2 - 1 1.20 Swansea
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 53.4%54%-0.2%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 79.1%80%-1.4%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 71.3%72%-1.0%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 55.1%53%+2.5%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS no 49.7%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson46.1%27.8%26.0%
xgboost59.2%23.0%17.8%
logistic54.0%26.1%19.9%
Inputs the models saw
BirminghamSwansea
Elo (pre-match)16351610
Surface Elo16351610
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.401.20
Form trend0.000.30
Season points per game2.291.71
Season goals for / game2.291.43
Season goals against / game0.571.57
Rest days33
Head-to-head (last 10)4 W0 W · 6 D
Birmingham: last 5
03 NovHMillwall3 - 0W
03 NovHMillwall3 - 0W
03 NovAWoking1 - 3L
31 OctALincoln3 - 1W
31 OctALincoln3 - 1W
Swansea: last 5
03 NovAPortsmouth1 - 3L
03 NovAPortsmouth1 - 3L
31 OctHBlackburn4 - 0W
31 OctHBlackburn4 - 0W
30 OctABirmingham3 - 0W
Head to head
30 Oct 2026Birmingham0 - 3Swansea
17 Jan 2026Swansea1 - 1Birmingham
20 Sep 2025Birmingham1 - 0Swansea
13 Jan 2024Birmingham2 - 2Swansea
05 Aug 2023Swansea1 - 1Birmingham
04 Feb 2023Swansea3 - 4Birmingham
08 Nov 2022Birmingham2 - 2Swansea
19 Mar 2022Swansea0 - 0Birmingham
23 Oct 2021Birmingham2 - 1Swansea
02 Apr 2021Birmingham1 - 0Swansea
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away4.2923.3%06 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.7626.6%06 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.8853.2%06 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.9152.4%06 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.9451.5%06 Nov 06:15
Generated 2026-11-12 22:04 UTC