| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 62.3% | 75% | -12.7% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 31.4% | 68.6% |
| logistic | 35.7% | 64.3% |
| Gonzalo Villanueva | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1530 | 1654 |
| Surface Elo | 1530 | 1654 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 0.33 |
| Rest days | 7 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | H | Guido Ivan Justo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Mateus Alves | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Guido Ivan Justo | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Guido Ivan Justo | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Gonzalo Villanueva | 1 - 2 | L |
| 25 Sep | H | Alex Barrena | 0 - 1 | L |
| 24 Sep | H | Valerio Aboian | 1 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Alex Barrena | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Gonzalo Villanueva | 2 - 1 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo |
| 24 Nov 2025 | Gonzalo Villanueva | 1 - 2 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo |
| 21 Aug 2023 | Gonzalo Villanueva | 2 - 1 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.39 | 71.9% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.85 | 35.1% | 29 Sep 06:15 |