| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 80.9% | 89% | -8.4% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 37.0% | 63.0% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 17.1% | 82.8% |
| logistic | 20.2% | 79.8% |
| Rafael Tosetto | Mateus Alves | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1395 | 1467 |
| Surface Elo | 1395 | 1467 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.38 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 03 Nov | H | Franco Roncadelli | 1 - 2 | L |
| 02 Nov | A | Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Nov | A | Franco Roncadelli | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Nov | A | Younes Lalami Laaroussi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Oct | H | Tomas Martinez | 1 - 2 | L |
| 02 Nov | H | Filip Misolic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Jose Pereira | 0 - 1 | L |
| 18 Oct | H | Munk Mesa, Bernardo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Bruno Fernandez | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.12 | 89.3% | 10 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 5.50 | 18.2% | 10 Nov 06:15 |