| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 49.0% | 41% | +8.2% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 76.7% | 82% | -5.0% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 61.2% | 54% | +7.2% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.4% | 71% | -11.0% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 58.8% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 31.4% | 22.5% | 46.2% |
| xgboost | 46.5% | 25.1% | 28.5% |
| logistic | 44.4% | 27.0% | 28.6% |
| Nurnberg | Wolfsburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1541 | 1527 |
| Surface Elo | 1541 | 1527 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.67 | 1.83 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.67 | 2.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 21 | 22 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 19 Sep | A | Karlsruhe | 1 - 0 | W |
| 11 Sep | H | Hannover | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Holstein Kiel | 2 - 2 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | Bielefeld | 4 - 1 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | Greuther Furth | 4 - 2 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | TSV Havelse | 4 - 1 | W |
| 18 Sep | H | Darmstadt | 5 - 1 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | St Pauli | 0 - 1 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Cottbus | 4 - 4 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | Karlsruhe | 5 - 2 | W |
| 04 May 2019 | Wolfsburg | 2 - 0 | Nurnberg |
| 14 Dec 2018 | Nurnberg | 0 - 2 | Wolfsburg |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.60 | 38.5% | 10 Oct 19:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 10 Oct 19:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.35 | 42.5% | 10 Oct 19:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.50 | 66.7% | 10 Oct 19:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.50 | 40.0% | 10 Oct 19:30 |