| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 67.6% | 67% | +0.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 36.4% | 63.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 23.9% | 76.0% |
| logistic | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| Kaylan Bigun | Keegan Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1424 | 1561 |
| Surface Elo | 1424 | 1561 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.67 |
| Rest days | 1 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | A | Alafia Ayeni | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Keegan Smith | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Aug | H | Keshav Chopra | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Apr | H | Liam Draxl | 1 - 2 | L |
| 02 Feb | A | Daniel Milavsky | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Mitchell Krueger | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Bryce Nakashima Nakashima | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Kaylan Bigun | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Sep | H | Dylan Dietrich | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Edward Winter | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Kaylan Bigun | 1 - 2 | Keegan Smith |
| 20 Oct 2025 | Kaylan Bigun | 2 - 1 | Keegan Smith |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.49 | 67.1% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.50 | 40.0% | 29 Sep 06:15 |