| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 44.1% | 43% | +1.3% | |
| DC | Home or away | 77.5% | 78% | -0.9% | |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 54.5% | 57% | -2.7% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.0% | 65% | -0.5% | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 63.9% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 36.2% | 25.1% | 38.7% |
| xgboost | 42.8% | 18.7% | 38.5% |
| logistic | 28.7% | 28.5% | 42.7% |
| Telstar | Utrecht | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1471 | 1614 |
| Surface Elo | 1471 | 1614 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 0.25 | 1.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.50 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 8 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 27 Oct | H | Almere City | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Oct | A | Go Ahead Eagles | 2 - 3 | L |
| 23 Oct | A | Go Ahead Eagles | 2 - 3 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Feyenoord | 3 - 4 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Feyenoord | 3 - 4 | L |
| 29 Oct | A | Kozakken Boys Werkendam | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Zwolle | 1 - 1 | D |
| 24 Oct | H | Zwolle | 1 - 1 | D |
| 23 Oct | A | Volendam | 2 - 6 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Roda JC Kerkrade | 1 - 2 | L |
| 11 Apr 2026 | Utrecht | 4 - 1 | Telstar |
| 23 Nov 2025 | Telstar | 1 - 1 | Utrecht |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.34 | 42.7% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.78 | 26.5% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.80 | 35.7% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.55 | 64.5% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.45 | 40.8% | 30 Oct 06:15 |