| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 44.1% | 35% | +9.0% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 73.6% | 73% | +0.4% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 55.8% | 49% | +6.5% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.9% | 51% | +7.3% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.2% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 35.1% | 26.8% | 38.1% |
| xgboost | 35.0% | 33.5% | 31.5% |
| logistic | 38.1% | 27.5% | 34.4% |
| Elche | Celta | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1576 | 1626 |
| Surface Elo | 1576 | 1626 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 22 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 5 W · 1 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Valencia | 4 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | UCAM Murcia | 1 - 5 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Yeclano Deportivo | 0 - 1 | L |
| 20 Sep | H | SCR Pena Deportiva | 1 - 0 | W |
| 18 Sep | A | Espanol | 3 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Santander | 5 - 0 | W |
| 13 Sep | H | Malaga | 1 - 1 | D |
| 07 Sep | A | Getafe | 1 - 1 | D |
| 03 Sep | A | Sociedad | 0 - 0 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | Athletic Club | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 May 2026 | Celta | 3 - 1 | Elche |
| 28 Sep 2025 | Elche | 2 - 1 | Celta |
| 26 Apr 2023 | Celta | 1 - 0 | Elche |
| 06 Jan 2023 | Elche | 0 - 1 | Celta |
| 15 May 2022 | Celta | 1 - 0 | Elche |
| 03 Oct 2021 | Elche | 1 - 0 | Celta |
| 12 Feb 2021 | Celta | 3 - 1 | Elche |
| 06 Nov 2020 | Elche | 1 - 1 | Celta |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.62 | 38.2% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.36 | 29.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.85 | 35.1% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.98 | 50.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.84 | 54.4% | 09 Oct 06:15 |