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form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-14

🎾 tennis_atp_shanghai_masters · Wednesday 14 October 2026, 10:00 UTC · scheduled

Daniil Medvedev 2.40 10:00 2.40 Stefanos Tsitsipas

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	66.2%	70%	-4.2%

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	66.4%	33.5%
logistic	61.1%	38.9%
markov	abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0)

Inputs the models saw

	Daniil Medvedev	Stefanos Tsitsipas
Elo (pre-match)	2063	1941
Surface Elo	2063	1941
Form, last 5 (PPG)	2.40	2.40
Form trend	0.00	-0.30
Season points per game	1.50	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.50	1.50
Season goals against / game	1.50	1.50
Rest days	2	2
Head-to-head (last 10)	5 W	5 W · 0 D

Daniil Medvedev: last 5

14 Oct	H	Stefanos Tsitsipas	2 - 0	W
12 Oct	H	Dalibor Svrcina	2 - 0	W
12 Oct	A	Dalibor Svrcina	2 - 0	W
10 Oct	H	Jan Lennard Struff	2 - 1	W
10 Oct	H	Rodrigo Alujas	2 - 1	W

Stefanos Tsitsipas: last 5

14 Oct	A	Daniil Medvedev	0 - 2	L
12 Oct	H	Taylor Fritz	2 - 1	W
12 Oct	H	Taylor Fritz	2 - 1	W
10 Oct	A	Luciano Darderi	2 - 0	W
10 Oct	A	Luciano Darderi	2 - 0	W

Head to head

14 Oct 2026	Daniil Medvedev	2 - 0	Stefanos Tsitsipas
18 Feb 2026	Daniil Medvedev	0 - 2	Stefanos Tsitsipas
02 Oct 2024	Daniil Medvedev	2 - 0	Stefanos Tsitsipas
23 Oct 2023	Daniil Medvedev	2 - 0	Stefanos Tsitsipas
08 May 2023	Daniil Medvedev	2 - 0	Stefanos Tsitsipas
14 Nov 2022	Daniil Medvedev	1 - 2	Stefanos Tsitsipas
15 Aug 2022	Daniil Medvedev	1 - 2	Stefanos Tsitsipas
17 Jan 2022	Daniil Medvedev	3 - 1	Stefanos Tsitsipas
31 May 2021	Daniil Medvedev	0 - 3	Stefanos Tsitsipas
08 Feb 2021	Daniil Medvedev	3 - 0	Stefanos Tsitsipas

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
1xBet	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.44	69.4%	14 Oct 06:02
1xBet	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	2.88	34.7%	14 Oct 06:02
888sport	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.44	69.4%	14 Oct 06:02
888sport	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	2.75	36.4%	14 Oct 06:02
BetAnything	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.42	70.4%	14 Oct 06:02
BetAnything	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	3.00	33.3%	14 Oct 06:02
Betfair sharp	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.48	67.6%	14 Oct 06:02
Betfair sharp	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	3.05	32.8%	14 Oct 06:02
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Daniil Medvedev	1.49	67.1%	14 Oct 06:02
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Stefanos Tsitsipas	3.10	32.3%	14 Oct 06:02
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.45	69.0%	14 Oct 06:02
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	2.84	35.2%	14 Oct 06:02
Betsson	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.41	70.9%	14 Oct 06:02
Betsson	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	2.90	34.5%	14 Oct 06:02
Coolbet	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.43	69.9%	14 Oct 06:02
Coolbet	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	2.85	35.1%	14 Oct 06:02
GTbets	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.48	67.6%	14 Oct 06:02
GTbets	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	2.92	34.2%	14 Oct 06:02
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.43	69.9%	14 Oct 06:02
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	2.85	35.1%	14 Oct 06:02
Marathon Bet	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.42	70.4%	14 Oct 06:02
Marathon Bet	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	2.84	35.2%	14 Oct 06:02
Matchbook	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.48	67.6%	14 Oct 06:02
Matchbook	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	3.05	32.8%	14 Oct 06:02
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Daniil Medvedev	1.49	67.1%	14 Oct 06:02
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Stefanos Tsitsipas	3.10	32.3%	14 Oct 06:02
Nordic Bet	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.41	70.9%	14 Oct 06:02
Nordic Bet	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	2.90	34.5%	14 Oct 06:02
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.45	69.0%	14 Oct 06:02
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	2.97	33.7%	14 Oct 06:02
PMU (FR)	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.36	73.5%	14 Oct 06:02
PMU (FR)	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	2.70	37.0%	14 Oct 06:02
SportyBet	1X2	away	2.95	33.9%	14 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	1.42	70.4%	14 Oct 06:15
Tipico	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.35	74.1%	14 Oct 06:02
Tipico	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	2.95	33.9%	14 Oct 06:02
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.39	71.9%	14 Oct 06:02
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	2.95	33.9%	14 Oct 06:02
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.43	69.9%	14 Oct 06:02
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	2.85	35.1%	14 Oct 06:02
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.43	69.9%	14 Oct 06:02
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	2.85	35.1%	14 Oct 06:02
William Hill	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.44	69.4%	14 Oct 06:02
William Hill	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	2.75	36.4%	14 Oct 06:02
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.43	69.9%	14 Oct 06:02
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	3.00	33.3%	14 Oct 06:02
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Daniil Medvedev	1.41	70.9%	14 Oct 06:02
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	2.90	34.5%	14 Oct 06:02

Generated 2026-10-30 15:55 UTC