| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 68.5% | 74% | -5.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 59.7% | 40.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 70.0% | 29.9% |
| logistic | 64.4% | 35.6% |
| Tomas Machac | Alexandre Muller | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1803 | 1671 |
| Surface Elo | 1803 | 1671 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | A | Liam Draxl | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Aleksandar Vukic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Alexandre Muller | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | Alexander Bublik | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Alexander Bublik | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Tomas Machac | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | A | Mattia Bellucci | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Rio Noguchi | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Mattia Bellucci | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | H | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Alexandre Muller | 0 - 2 | Tomas Machac |
| 04 Sep 2023 | Alexandre Muller | 1 - 2 | Tomas Machac |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.90 | 34.5% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.37 | 73.0% | 13 Oct 06:15 |