OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-03

🎾 tennis_atp_china_open · Saturday 03 October 2026, 11:00 UTC · scheduled

Alexander Zverev 3.00 11:00 0.60 Juncheng Shang

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	83.7%	93%	-8.9%

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
poisson	37.0%	35.3%
xgboost	85.0%	14.9%
logistic	84.3%	15.7%
markov	abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0)

Inputs the models saw

	Alexander Zverev	Juncheng Shang
Elo (pre-match)	2189	1719
Surface Elo	2189	1719
Form, last 5 (PPG)	3.00	0.60
Form trend	0.00	-0.60
Season points per game	1.50	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.50	1.50
Season goals against / game	1.50	1.50
Rest days	2	2
Head-to-head (last 10)	0 W	0 W · 0 D

Alexander Zverev: last 5

03 Oct	H	Juncheng Shang	2 - 0	W
01 Oct	H	Cameron Norrie	2 - 0	W
01 Oct	H	Rohan Murali	2 - 0	W
13 Sep	H	Ben Shelton	3 - 1	W
11 Sep	H	Karen Khachanov	3 - 0	W

Juncheng Shang: last 5

03 Oct	A	Alexander Zverev	0 - 2	L
01 Oct	H	Sebastian Baez	2 - 1	W
01 Oct	H	Sebastian Baez	2 - 1	W
24 Sep	H	Adrian Mannarino	0 - 2	L
24 Sep	A	Adrian Mannarino	0 - 2	L

Head to head

03 Oct 2026

Alexander Zverev

2 - 0

Juncheng Shang

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
1xBet	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.08	92.6%	03 Oct 06:01
1xBet	h2h	Juncheng Shang	8.95	11.2%	03 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.05	95.2%	03 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Juncheng Shang	10.00	10.0%	03 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.07	93.5%	03 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Juncheng Shang	8.45	11.8%	03 Oct 06:01
Betclic (FR)	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.07	93.5%	03 Oct 06:01
Betclic (FR)	h2h	Juncheng Shang	8.40	11.9%	03 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.10	90.9%	03 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Juncheng Shang	10.00	10.0%	03 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Alexander Zverev	1.11	90.1%	03 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Juncheng Shang	11.00	9.1%	03 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.08	92.6%	03 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Juncheng Shang	8.54	11.7%	03 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.07	93.5%	03 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Juncheng Shang	8.00	12.5%	03 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.07	93.5%	03 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Juncheng Shang	8.70	11.5%	03 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.09	91.7%	03 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Juncheng Shang	8.42	11.9%	03 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.08	92.6%	03 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Juncheng Shang	8.00	12.5%	03 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.07	93.5%	03 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Juncheng Shang	8.00	12.5%	03 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.10	90.9%	03 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Juncheng Shang	10.00	10.0%	03 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Alexander Zverev	1.11	90.1%	03 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Juncheng Shang	11.00	9.1%	03 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.07	93.5%	03 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Juncheng Shang	8.00	12.5%	03 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.08	92.6%	03 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Juncheng Shang	9.58	10.4%	03 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.04	96.2%	03 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Juncheng Shang	7.50	13.3%	03 Oct 06:01
SportyBet	1X2	away	8.90	11.2%	03 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	1.08	92.6%	03 Oct 06:15
Tipico	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.03	97.1%	03 Oct 06:01
Tipico	h2h	Juncheng Shang	9.00	11.1%	03 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.03	97.1%	03 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Juncheng Shang	7.50	13.3%	03 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.08	92.6%	03 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Juncheng Shang	8.00	12.5%	03 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.08	92.6%	03 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Juncheng Shang	8.00	12.5%	03 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.05	95.2%	03 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Juncheng Shang	10.00	10.0%	03 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.07	93.5%	03 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Juncheng Shang	10.00	10.0%	03 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.06	94.3%	03 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Juncheng Shang	8.50	11.8%	03 Oct 06:01

Generated 2026-10-30 17:05 UTC