| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 48.1% | 44% | +4.5% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 76.8% | 76% | +0.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 61.5% | 60% | +1.2% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.4% | 55% | +2.2% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.1% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 32.1% | 27.9% | 40.0% |
| xgboost | 30.1% | 18.8% | 51.1% |
| logistic | 26.1% | 28.7% | 45.2% |
| AFC Wimbledon | Mansfield | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1425 | 1533 |
| Surface Elo | 1425 | 1533 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.70 | -0.40 |
| Season points per game | 0.33 | 1.67 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.67 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.67 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 3 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 2 W · 3 D |
| 17 Oct | A | Sheffield Weds | 0 - 5 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Sheffield Weds | 0 - 5 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Plymouth | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Plymouth | 1 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | H | Barnet | 0 - 0 | D |
| 15 Oct | H | Oxford | 1 - 1 | D |
| 15 Oct | H | Oxford | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Bromley | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Bromley | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Port Vale | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Feb 2026 | Mansfield | 2 - 2 | AFC Wimbledon |
| 13 Dec 2025 | AFC Wimbledon | 0 - 0 | Mansfield |
| 27 Jan 2024 | AFC Wimbledon | 2 - 1 | Mansfield |
| 07 Oct 2023 | Mansfield | 0 - 0 | AFC Wimbledon |
| 04 Mar 2023 | AFC Wimbledon | 1 - 3 | Mansfield |
| 16 Aug 2022 | Mansfield | 5 - 2 | AFC Wimbledon |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.15 | 46.5% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.25 | 30.8% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.81 | 55.2% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.97 | 50.8% | 20 Oct 06:15 |