| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prediction run for this match yet. | |||||
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| – | |||
| Ajax | Excelsior | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1685 | 1511 |
| Surface Elo | 1685 | 1511 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 2.17 | 1.67 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.17 | 2.17 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| Rest days | 3 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 6 W | 1 W · 3 D |
| 15 Sep | H | Willem II | 5 - 1 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | For Sittard | 5 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | H | PSV Eindhoven | 1 - 3 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | Telstar | 4 - 0 | W |
| 16 Aug | H | Heerenveen | 2 - 2 | D |
| 13 Sep | H | Utrecht | 1 - 2 | L |
| 08 Sep | A | Nijmegen | 2 - 2 | D |
| 05 Sep | A | Willem II | 3 - 0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 - 1 | W |
| 15 Aug | H | PSV Eindhoven | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Feb 2026 | Excelsior | 2 - 2 | Ajax |
| 22 Nov 2025 | Ajax | 1 - 2 | Excelsior |
| 24 Apr 2024 | Ajax | 2 - 2 | Excelsior |
| 19 Aug 2023 | Excelsior | 2 - 2 | Ajax |
| 29 Jan 2023 | Excelsior | 1 - 4 | Ajax |
| 16 Oct 2022 | Ajax | 7 - 1 | Excelsior |
| 13 Apr 2019 | Ajax | 6 - 2 | Excelsior |
| 11 Nov 2018 | Excelsior | 1 - 7 | Ajax |
| 06 May 2018 | Excelsior | 1 - 2 | Ajax |
| 14 Dec 2017 | Ajax | 3 - 1 | Excelsior |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 11.00 | 9.1% | 19 Sep 19:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 6.50 | 15.4% | 19 Sep 19:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.25 | 80.0% | 19 Sep 19:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.30 | 76.9% | 19 Sep 19:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.50 | 28.6% | 19 Sep 19:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 10.96 | 9.1% | 19 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 7.54 | 13.3% | 19 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.24 | 80.7% | 19 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.30 | 76.9% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.70 | 27.0% | 19 Sep 06:16 |