OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🏈 NFL on 2026-09-27

NFL · Sunday 27 September 2026, 17:00 UTC · finished

Pittsburgh Steelers – 30 - 27 – Cincinnati Bengals

NFL forecast: home/away probabilities are conditional on no tie. Full-game moneylines include overtime; ties refund. Pick publication is disabled pending validation.

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	53.8%	39%	+14.6%	✓ hit

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
ensemble	53.8%	46.2%

Inputs the models saw

	Pittsburgh Steelers	Cincinnati Bengals
playoff	0.00
elo diff	0.04
form diff	0.00
rest diff	0.00
home field	1.00
point diff	-0.62
opponent strength diff	0.05
Information cutoff (UTC)	2026-09-26T17:00:00+00:00

Pittsburgh Steelers: last 5

20 Sep	A	New England Patriots	3 - 20	L
13 Sep	H	Atlanta Falcons	20 - 13	W
13 Jan	H	Houston Texans	6 - 30	L
05 Jan	H	Baltimore Ravens	26 - 24	W
28 Dec	A	Cleveland Browns	6 - 13	L

Cincinnati Bengals: last 5

20 Sep	A	Houston Texans	20 - 6	W
13 Sep	H	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	33 - 27	W
04 Jan	H	Cleveland Browns	18 - 20	L
28 Dec	H	Arizona Cardinals	37 - 14	W
21 Dec	A	Miami Dolphins	45 - 21	W

Head to head

16 Nov 2025	Pittsburgh Steelers	34 - 12	Cincinnati Bengals
17 Oct 2025	Cincinnati Bengals	33 - 31	Pittsburgh Steelers
05 Jan 2025	Pittsburgh Steelers	17 - 19	Cincinnati Bengals
01 Dec 2024	Cincinnati Bengals	38 - 44	Pittsburgh Steelers
23 Dec 2023	Pittsburgh Steelers	34 - 11	Cincinnati Bengals
26 Nov 2023	Cincinnati Bengals	10 - 16	Pittsburgh Steelers
20 Nov 2022	Pittsburgh Steelers	30 - 37	Cincinnati Bengals
11 Sep 2022	Cincinnati Bengals	20 - 23	Pittsburgh Steelers
28 Nov 2021	Cincinnati Bengals	41 - 10	Pittsburgh Steelers
26 Sep 2021	Pittsburgh Steelers	10 - 24	Cincinnati Bengals

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	home	2.51	39.8%	27 Sep 14:20
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	away	1.60	62.5%	27 Sep 14:20

Generated 2026-10-30 19:28 UTC