| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 63.2% | 62% | +1.2% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Draw or away | 82.1% | 87% | -4.4% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 77.3% | 81% | -3.4% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.5% | 51% | +0.5% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 50.9% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 16.6% | 23.0% | 60.4% |
| xgboost | 20.8% | 13.6% | 65.6% |
| logistic | 14.3% | 21.6% | 64.1% |
| Guimaraes | Porto | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1496 | 1887 |
| Surface Elo | 1496 | 1887 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.90 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 2.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| Rest days | 5 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 8 W · 1 D |
| 07 Nov | A | SC Sao Joao de Ver | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Nov | A | Gil Vicente | 0 - 0 | D |
| 01 Nov | H | SC Vianense | 2 - 2 | D |
| 25 Oct | A | Varzim SC | 4 - 2 | W |
| 23 Oct | H | Maritimo | 5 - 0 | W |
| 08 Nov | H | Portimonense | 0 - 1 | L |
| 04 Nov | H | Napoli | 4 - 1 | W |
| 31 Oct | H | Estoril | 4 - 0 | W |
| 31 Oct | H | Estoril | 4 - 0 | W |
| 31 Oct | A | Amarante FC | 1 - 2 | L |
| 18 Jan 2026 | Guimaraes | 0 - 1 | Porto |
| 11 Aug 2025 | Porto | 3 - 0 | Guimaraes |
| 24 Feb 2025 | Porto | 1 - 1 | Guimaraes |
| 21 Sep 2024 | Guimaraes | 0 - 3 | Porto |
| 07 Apr 2024 | Porto | 1 - 2 | Guimaraes |
| 11 Nov 2023 | Guimaraes | 1 - 2 | Porto |
| 27 May 2023 | Porto | 3 - 0 | Guimaraes |
| 21 Jan 2023 | Guimaraes | 0 - 1 | Porto |
| 10 Apr 2022 | Guimaraes | 0 - 1 | Porto |
| 28 Nov 2021 | Porto | 2 - 1 | Guimaraes |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 1.42 | 70.4% | 08 Nov 18:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.50 | 22.2% | 08 Nov 18:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 6.25 | 16.0% | 08 Nov 18:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.75 | 57.1% | 08 Nov 18:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.05 | 48.8% | 08 Nov 18:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.58 | 63.3% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.36 | 22.9% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 5.92 | 16.9% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.86 | 53.8% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.99 | 50.2% | 08 Nov 06:15 |