| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 79.5% | 86% | -6.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 29.0% | 71.0% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 15.0% | 84.9% |
| logistic | 32.5% | 67.5% |
| Murkel Dellien | Juan Pablo Varillas | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1485 | 1668 |
| Surface Elo | 1485 | 1668 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 22 Sep | H | Hernan Casanova | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Juan Pablo Varillas | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Hernan Casanova | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | Benito Sanchez Martinez | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | H | Ryan Nijboer | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Tomas Farjat | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Murkel Dellien | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Tomas Farjat | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Sep | H | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Juan Pablo Varillas | 2 - 1 | Murkel Dellien |
| 17 Nov 2025 | Juan Pablo Varillas | 2 - 0 | Murkel Dellien |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.16 | 86.2% | 23 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.90 | 20.4% | 23 Sep 06:15 |