| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 74.7% | 81% | -6.0% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 31.9% | 68.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 27.5% | 72.4% |
| logistic | 23.4% | 76.6% |
| Valentin Vacherot | Arthur Fils | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1809 | 2104 |
| Surface Elo | 1809 | 2104 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 4 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 04 Oct | A | Arthur Fils | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Alexander Blockx | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Alexander Blockx | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Lloyd Harris | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Valentin Vacherot | 1 - 2 | L |
| 02 Oct | H | Frances Tiafoe | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | H | Frances Tiafoe | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Luca Van Assche | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Luca Van Assche | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct 2026 | Arthur Fils | 1 - 2 | Valentin Vacherot |
| 24 Mar 2026 | Arthur Fils | 2 - 1 | Valentin Vacherot |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.24 | 80.7% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.25 | 23.5% | 03 Oct 06:15 |