| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 42.1% | 38% | +4.3% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 72.9% | 77% | -3.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 53.4% | 53% | +0.4% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.1% | 52% | +3.5% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 52.8% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 40.1% | 27.2% | 32.7% |
| xgboost | 31.3% | 34.4% | 34.3% |
| logistic | 30.0% | 28.8% | 41.2% |
| Chaves | Vizela | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1401 | 1411 |
| Surface Elo | 1401 | 1411 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| Season points per game | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.50 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 887 | 888 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 2 D |
| 16 Oct | H | Os Marialvas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Brito SC | 4 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Lusitania FC Lourosa | 1 - 1 | D |
| 04 Oct | A | Farense | 0 - 4 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Guarda Desportiva FC | 3 - 2 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Atletico Clube de Portugal | 0 - 1 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Sporting | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 May | A | Boavista | 2 - 2 | D |
| 11 May | H | Estrela | 4 - 0 | W |
| 03 May | A | Moreirense | 0 - 1 | L |
| 15 Apr 2024 | Vizela | 0 - 1 | Chaves |
| 01 Dec 2023 | Chaves | 2 - 1 | Vizela |
| 10 Feb 2023 | Vizela | 0 - 0 | Chaves |
| 20 Aug 2022 | Chaves | 1 - 1 | Vizela |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.75 | 36.4% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.30 | 30.3% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.50 | 40.0% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.95 | 51.3% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.82 | 54.9% | 23 Oct 06:15 |