| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 64.3% | 94% | -30.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 61.4% | 38.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 69.6% | 30.3% |
| logistic | 55.4% | 44.6% |
| Mateus Alves | Wilson Leite | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1470 | 1403 |
| Surface Elo | 1470 | 1403 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 25 Sep | H | Joao Victor Couto Loureiro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Pedro Henrique Chabalgoity | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Sep | H | Manuel Mouilleron Salvo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 May | A | Hernan Casanova | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Mar | A | Juan Pablo Ficovich | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 Sep | H | Jose Pereira | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Sep | H | Gabriel Roveri Sidney | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Jun | A | Nick Hardt | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Jun | A | Filipe Bullamah | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep 2024 | Mateus Alves | 2 - 1 | Wilson Leite |
| 02 Oct 2023 | Mateus Alves | 0 - 2 | Wilson Leite |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 7.50 | 13.3% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.06 | 94.3% | 26 Sep 06:15 |