| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 60.8% | 92% | -30.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 24.4% | 75.6% |
| logistic | 48.0% | 52.0% |
| Jose Pereira | Mateus Alves | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1440 | 1483 |
| Surface Elo | 1440 | 1483 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 2 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | A | Ryan Dickerson | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Mateus Alves | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Rafael Tosetto | 2 - 1 | W |
| 25 Sep | A | Wilson Leite | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | A | Justin Roberts | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Gonzalo Villanueva | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Jose Pereira | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Pedro Sakamoto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Wilson Leite | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Sep | H | Joao Victor Couto Loureiro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Jose Pereira | 1 - 2 | Mateus Alves |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.09 | 91.7% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 6.40 | 15.6% | 29 Sep 06:15 |