OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-09-20
⚽ Primeira Liga · Sunday 20 September 2026, 14:30 UTC · finished
Guimaraes 0.80 1 - 1 1.20 Moreirense
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 65.7%66%-0.2%✗ miss
DCHome or draw 89.1%91%-1.8%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 84.4%86%-1.9%void
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 44.6%53%-8.5%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS no 42.1%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson47.6%25.9%26.5%
xgboost49.0%32.2%18.7%
logistic61.0%23.6%15.4%
Inputs the models saw
GuimaraesMoreirense
Elo (pre-match)14841512
Surface Elo14841512
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.801.20
Form trend0.20-0.30
Season points per game0.671.17
Season goals for / game0.671.17
Season goals against / game1.172.17
Rest days75
Head-to-head (last 10)6 W2 W · 2 D
Guimaraes: last 5
12 SepAAcademico Viseu1 - 2L
06 SepHCasa Pia0 - 0D
31 AugASp Braga0 - 1L
23 AugHNacional1 - 0W
14 AugASp Lisbon2 - 3L
Moreirense: last 5
14 SepHMaritimo3 - 1W
09 SepHBenfica0 - 4L
04 SepAPorto1 - 2L
30 AugACasa Pia1 - 0W
16 AugAArouca0 - 4L
Head to head
30 Jan 2026Guimaraes1 - 0Moreirense
23 Aug 2025Moreirense2 - 0Guimaraes
30 Mar 2025Moreirense2 - 2Guimaraes
03 Nov 2024Guimaraes1 - 0Moreirense
30 Mar 2024Guimaraes1 - 0Moreirense
05 Nov 2023Moreirense1 - 0Guimaraes
03 Apr 2022Moreirense0 - 1Guimaraes
06 Nov 2021Guimaraes2 - 1Moreirense
30 Apr 2021Guimaraes2 - 0Moreirense
09 Jan 2021Moreirense2 - 2Guimaraes
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away7.0014.3%20 Sep 15:30
Bet3651X2draw3.9025.6%20 Sep 15:30
Bet3651X2home1.4668.5%20 Sep 15:30
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.8554.0%20 Sep 15:30
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.0050.0%20 Sep 15:30
SportyBet1X2away6.7614.8%20 Sep 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.3722.9%20 Sep 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.5365.4%20 Sep 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.9651.0%20 Sep 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.8952.9%20 Sep 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 19:26 UTC