| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 73.1% | no line | ✓ hit | |
| DC | Home or draw | 94.1% | no line | ✓ hit | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 93.5% | no line | ✓ hit | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.3% | no line | ✗ miss | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 49.4% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 61.2% | 21.5% | 17.3% |
| xgboost | 73.5% | 16.4% | 10.2% |
| logistic | 75.4% | 17.4% | 7.2% |
| AZ Alkmaar | Telstar | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1658 | 1507 |
| Surface Elo | 1658 | 1507 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| Form trend | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 8 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 11 Sep | H | Willem II | 1 - 1 | D |
| 06 Sep | A | Heerenveen | 3 - 2 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | Go Ahead Eagles | 5 - 2 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | For Sittard | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | Utrecht | 4 - 1 | W |
| 13 Sep | A | Heerenveen | 0 - 0 | D |
| 09 Sep | A | Twente | 0 - 1 | L |
| 06 Sep | H | Cambuur | 2 - 2 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | Ajax | 0 - 4 | L |
| 14 Aug | H | Sparta Rotterdam | 1 - 3 | L |
| 25 Jan 2026 | Telstar | 0 - 1 | AZ Alkmaar |
| 05 Oct 2025 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 - 1 | Telstar |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No bookmaker lines stored. | |||||