| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 63.7% | 23% | +40.2% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Draw or away | 84.5% | 50% | +34.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 80.1% | 31% | +48.9% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.9% | 50% | +3.7% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 51.5% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 11.0% | 19.2% | 69.8% |
| xgboost | 26.5% | 31.4% | 42.1% |
| logistic | 5.9% | 14.2% | 79.9% |
| Farense | Benfica | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1432 | 1866 |
| Surface Elo | 1432 | 1866 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.75 | 2.33 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 0.33 |
| Rest days | 539 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 4 W · 2 D |
| 01 Nov | A | Lusitania FC Lourosa | 1 - 1 | D |
| 24 Oct | H | FC Penafiel | 1 - 4 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | AD Marco 09 | 3 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Feirense | 2 - 1 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Chaves | 4 - 0 | W |
| 05 Nov | H | KKS Lech Poznan | 3 - 1 | W |
| 02 Nov | H | Alverca | 1 - 0 | W |
| 31 Oct | H | Chaves | 3 - 1 | W |
| 29 Oct | H | Gil Vicente | 4 - 1 | W |
| 26 Oct | A | Santa Clara | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Apr 2025 | Benfica | 3 - 2 | Farense |
| 02 Nov 2024 | Farense | 1 - 2 | Benfica |
| 22 Apr 2024 | Farense | 1 - 3 | Benfica |
| 08 Dec 2023 | Benfica | 1 - 1 | Farense |
| 21 Feb 2021 | Farense | 0 - 0 | Benfica |
| 04 Oct 2020 | Benfica | 3 - 2 | Farense |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.30 | 23.3% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.75 | 26.7% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.75 | 57.1% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.80 | 55.6% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.98 | 50.5% | 08 Nov 06:15 |