OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-10
⚽ England League Two · Saturday 10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC · finished
Newport County 1.20 1 - 0 0.60 Colchester
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 46.7%39%+7.5%✗ miss
DCHome or away 73.9%77%-3.1%✓ hit
DNBAway (DNB) 59.2%54%+5.0%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 57.5%51%+6.5%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS no 55.6%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson32.4%28.1%39.4%
xgboost39.3%30.4%30.3%
logistic33.0%30.2%36.7%
Inputs the models saw
Newport CountyColchester
Elo (pre-match)13691444
Surface Elo13691444
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.200.60
Form trend-0.40-0.30
Season points per game1.671.00
Season goals for / game0.671.50
Season goals against / game0.331.50
Rest days714
Head-to-head (last 10)2 W5 W · 3 D
Newport County: last 5
06 OctHPlymouth2 - 2D
03 OctAGillingham0 - 0D
03 OctAGillingham0 - 0D
26 SepHGrimsby2 - 1W
26 SepHGrimsby2 - 1W
Colchester: last 5
03 OctHLuton1 - 1D
26 SepAShrewsbury2 - 2D
26 SepAShrewsbury2 - 2D
22 SepAPeterborough United1 - 3L
19 SepHCheltenham1 - 1D
Head to head
07 Mar 2026Newport County1 - 2Colchester
20 Dec 2025Colchester4 - 1Newport County
12 Apr 2025Newport County0 - 2Colchester
14 Dec 2024Colchester0 - 0Newport County
29 Mar 2024Colchester2 - 1Newport County
03 Oct 2023Newport County2 - 1Colchester
01 Apr 2023Colchester0 - 0Newport County
22 Oct 2022Newport County1 - 0Colchester
22 Apr 2022Newport County1 - 2Colchester
26 Nov 2021Colchester1 - 1Newport County
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away2.5539.2%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.4029.4%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.6537.7%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.7856.2%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.9651.0%09 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 17:09 UTC