| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 42.0% | 26% | +15.7% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 74.5% | 76% | -1.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 52.0% | 37% | +15.3% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.6% | 60% | +2.1% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 57.3% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 33.3% | 31.0% | 35.7% |
| xgboost | 38.5% | 25.2% | 36.3% |
| logistic | 35.9% | 28.2% | 35.8% |
| Northampton | Colchester | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1301 | 1431 |
| Surface Elo | 1301 | 1431 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.75 | 0.80 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 5 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 20 Oct | H | Tranmere | 0 - 1 | L |
| 20 Oct | H | Tranmere | 0 - 1 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Grimsby | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Grimsby | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | York | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Oct | A | Chesterfield | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Oct | A | Chesterfield | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Exeter City | 0 - 0 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Exeter | 0 - 0 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Newport County | 0 - 1 | L |
| 25 Feb 2023 | Colchester | 0 - 1 | Northampton |
| 30 Jul 2022 | Northampton | 3 - 2 | Colchester |
| 19 Feb 2022 | Northampton | 3 - 0 | Colchester |
| 14 Aug 2021 | Colchester | 0 - 1 | Northampton |
| 24 Aug 2019 | Colchester | 1 - 0 | Northampton |
| 02 Feb 2019 | Northampton | 0 - 4 | Colchester |
| 25 Aug 2018 | Colchester | 1 - 2 | Northampton |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.80 | 26.3% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.33 | 30.0% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.00 | 50.0% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.10 | 47.6% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.68 | 59.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |