OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🏒 Ice hockey on 2026-10-03

🏒 NHL · Saturday 03 October 2026, 23:00 UTC · finished

Toronto Maple Leafs 0.20 2 - 3 0.20 Ottawa Senators

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Away win	56.8%	50%	+6.8%	✓ hit

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
poisson	37.3%	47.0%
xgboost	31.5%	67.7%
logistic	53.7%	46.3%

Inputs the models saw

	Toronto Maple Leafs	Ottawa Senators
Elo (pre-match)	1378	1530
Surface Elo	1378	1530
Form, last 5 (PPG)	0.20	0.20
Form trend	-0.20	0.20
Season points per game	0.50	0.50
Season goals for / game	2.00	3.00
Season goals against / game	2.00	3.00
Rest days	2	161
Head-to-head (last 10)	5 W	5 W · 0 D

Toronto Maple Leafs: last 5

30 Sep	H	New York Islanders	2 - 1	W
29 Sep	H	Montréal Canadiens	2 - 3	L
15 Apr	A	Ottawa Senators	1 - 3	L
13 Apr	H	Dallas Stars	5 - 6	L
11 Apr	H	Florida Panthers	2 - 6	L

Ottawa Senators: last 5

25 Apr	H	Carolina Hurricanes	2 - 4	L
23 Apr	H	Carolina Hurricanes	1 - 2	L
20 Apr	A	Carolina Hurricanes	2 - 3	L
18 Apr	A	Carolina Hurricanes	0 - 2	L
15 Apr	H	Toronto Maple Leafs	3 - 1	W

Head to head

15 Apr 2026	Ottawa Senators	3 - 1	Toronto Maple Leafs
21 Mar 2026	Ottawa Senators	5 - 2	Toronto Maple Leafs
01 Mar 2026	Toronto Maple Leafs	2 - 5	Ottawa Senators
28 Dec 2025	Toronto Maple Leafs	7 - 5	Ottawa Senators
01 May 2025	Ottawa Senators	2 - 4	Toronto Maple Leafs
29 Apr 2025	Toronto Maple Leafs	0 - 4	Ottawa Senators
26 Apr 2025	Ottawa Senators	4 - 3	Toronto Maple Leafs
24 Apr 2025	Ottawa Senators	2 - 3	Toronto Maple Leafs
22 Apr 2025	Toronto Maple Leafs	3 - 2	Ottawa Senators
20 Apr 2025	Toronto Maple Leafs	6 - 2	Ottawa Senators

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	home	1.91	52.4%	03 Oct 21:20
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	away	2.00	50.0%	03 Oct 21:20

Generated 2026-10-30 17:09 UTC