| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 64.3% | 75% | -10.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 55.9% | 44.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 66.2% | 33.7% |
| logistic | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| Alex De Minaur | Quentin Halys | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1955 | 1825 |
| Surface Elo | 1955 | 1825 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 03 Oct | H | Quentin Halys | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Mariano Navone | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Mariano Navone | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Sep | H | Botic Van De Zandschulp | 0 - 3 | L |
| 02 Sep | H | Andrea Guerrieri | 3 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Alex De Minaur | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Ignacio Buse | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Ignacio Buse | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Roman Safiullin | 1 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Roman Safiullin | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct 2026 | Alex De Minaur | 2 - 1 | Quentin Halys |
| 16 Aug 2026 | Alex De Minaur | 2 - 1 | Quentin Halys |
| 20 Mar 2023 | Alex De Minaur | 1 - 2 | Quentin Halys |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.40 | 29.4% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.34 | 74.6% | 02 Oct 06:15 |