| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.8% | 7% | +44.6% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 79.4% | 20% | +59.7% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 70.0% | 8% | +61.9% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.5% | 77% | -18.4% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 58.9% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 51.3% | 22.9% | 25.9% |
| xgboost | 50.7% | 32.5% | 16.8% |
| logistic | 50.2% | 26.8% | 23.0% |
| Excelsior | Den Haag | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1481 | 1364 |
| Surface Elo | 1481 | 1364 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 3 W · 0 D |
| 25 Oct | A | Fortuna Sittard | 0 - 1 | L |
| 25 Oct | A | For Sittard | 0 - 1 | L |
| 16 Oct | A | Heerenveen | 0 - 4 | L |
| 16 Oct | A | Heerenveen | 0 - 4 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Groningen | 1 - 5 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Heerenveen | 2 - 3 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Heerenveen | 2 - 3 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | PSV Eindhoven | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | PSV Eindhoven | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Telstar | 2 - 2 | D |
| 25 Apr 2019 | Den Haag | 3 - 1 | Excelsior |
| 01 Sep 2018 | Excelsior | 2 - 4 | Den Haag |
| 16 Mar 2018 | Excelsior | 1 - 2 | Den Haag |
| 15 Oct 2017 | Den Haag | 1 - 2 | Excelsior |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.17 | 85.5% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 8.00 | 12.5% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 14.00 | 7.1% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.30 | 76.9% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.50 | 28.6% | 27 Oct 06:15 |