| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.4% | 71% | -13.0% | |
| DC | Home or draw | 81.3% | 87% | -6.0% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 76.0% | 84% | -8.2% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 selected | 62.5% | 60% | +2.6% | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 63.5% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 43.4% | 25.0% | 30.9% |
| xgboost | 62.8% | 23.3% | 13.9% |
| logistic | 69.0% | 20.5% | 10.5% |
| Lille | Troyes | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1699 | 1371 |
| Surface Elo | 1699 | 1371 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 9 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 2 W · 2 D |
| 03 Sep | A | Toulouse | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | Paris Saint Germain | 2 - 2 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | Angers | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 May | H | Auxerre | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 May | A | Monaco | 1 - 0 | W |
| 06 Sep | H | Strasbourg | 2 - 6 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | Lorient | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | Paris FC | 0 - 0 | D |
| 03 Jun | H | Lille | 1 - 1 | D |
| 27 May | A | Angers | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Jun 2023 | Troyes | 1 - 1 | Lille |
| 15 Jan 2023 | Lille | 5 - 1 | Troyes |
| 01 May 2022 | Troyes | 3 - 0 | Lille |
| 04 Dec 2021 | Lille | 2 - 1 | Troyes |
| 20 Jan 2018 | Troyes | 1 - 0 | Lille |
| 14 Oct 2017 | Lille | 2 - 2 | Troyes |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 7.50 | 13.3% | 13 Sep 19:39 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.75 | 21.1% | 13 Sep 19:39 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.40 | 71.4% | 13 Sep 19:39 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.67 | 59.9% | 13 Sep 19:39 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 13 Sep 19:39 |