OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🏈 NFL on 2026-09-27

NFL · Sunday 27 September 2026, 17:00 UTC · finished

Miami Dolphins – 10 - 24 – Kansas City Chiefs

NFL forecast: home/away probabilities are conditional on no tie. Full-game moneylines include overtime; ties refund. Pick publication is disabled pending validation.

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Away win	56.6%	88%	-31.1%	✓ hit

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
ensemble	43.4%	56.6%

Inputs the models saw

	Miami Dolphins	Kansas City Chiefs
playoff	0.00
elo diff	-0.17
form diff	0.12
rest diff	0.02
home field	1.00
point diff	-0.46
opponent strength diff	-0.04
Information cutoff (UTC)	2026-09-26T17:00:00+00:00

Miami Dolphins: last 5

20 Sep	A	San Francisco 49ers	13 - 35	L
13 Sep	A	Las Vegas Raiders	13 - 27	L
04 Jan	A	New England Patriots	10 - 38	L
28 Dec	H	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	20 - 17	W
21 Dec	H	Cincinnati Bengals	21 - 45	L

Kansas City Chiefs: last 5

21 Sep	H	Indianapolis Colts	33 - 30	W
15 Sep	H	Denver Broncos	31 - 10	W
04 Jan	A	Las Vegas Raiders	12 - 14	L
26 Dec	H	Denver Broncos	13 - 20	L
21 Dec	A	Tennessee Titans	9 - 26	L

Head to head

14 Jan 2024	Kansas City Chiefs	26 - 7	Miami Dolphins
05 Nov 2023	Kansas City Chiefs	21 - 14	Miami Dolphins
13 Dec 2020	Miami Dolphins	27 - 33	Kansas City Chiefs
24 Dec 2017	Kansas City Chiefs	29 - 13	Miami Dolphins
21 Sep 2014	Miami Dolphins	15 - 34	Kansas City Chiefs
06 Nov 2011	Kansas City Chiefs	3 - 31	Miami Dolphins
21 Dec 2008	Kansas City Chiefs	31 - 38	Miami Dolphins
12 Nov 2006	Miami Dolphins	13 - 10	Kansas City Chiefs
21 Oct 2005	Miami Dolphins	20 - 30	Kansas City Chiefs
29 Sep 2002	Kansas City Chiefs	48 - 30	Miami Dolphins

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	home	5.46	18.3%	27 Sep 14:20
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	away	1.18	84.7%	27 Sep 14:20

Generated 2026-10-30 19:28 UTC