| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 77.8% | 92% | -14.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 74.6% | 25.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 96.7% | 3.3% |
| logistic | 78.7% | 21.3% |
| Francesco Passaro | Gastao Elias | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1836 | 1506 |
| Surface Elo | 1836 | 1506 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.73 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.91 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.64 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 2 | 162 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Oct | H | Gastao Elias | 2 - 0 | W |
| 18 Oct | H | Zsombor Piros | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Matej Dodig | 2 - 1 | W |
| 16 Oct | A | Marco Trungelliti | 2 - 1 | W |
| 15 Oct | H | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Francesco Passaro | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 May | H | Tiago Pereira | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Apr | H | Joel Schwaerzler | 1 - 2 | L |
| 26 Jan | A | Daniil Glinka | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Jan | H | Mikhail Kukushkin | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Francesco Passaro | 2 - 0 | Gastao Elias |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 6.50 | 15.4% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.09 | 91.7% | 20 Oct 06:15 |