| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 68.7% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 41.3% | 58.7% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 24.4% | 75.6% |
| logistic | 24.6% | 75.4% |
| Taylor Fritz | Carlos Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 2036 | 2333 |
| Surface Elo | 2036 | 2333 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 2.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.40 | 1.83 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.80 | 0.33 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 5 W · 0 D |
| 06 Nov | A | Carlos Alcaraz | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Nov | A | Arthur Fils | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Nov | A | Arthur Fils | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Nov | A | Alex Molcan | 2 - 1 | W |
| 04 Nov | A | Alex Molcan | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Nov | H | Taylor Fritz | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Nov | A | Matteo Berrettini | 1 - 0 | W |
| 04 Nov | A | Alex Michelsen | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Nov | A | Alex Michelsen | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Nov | A | Alex De Minaur | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Nov 2026 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 1 | Taylor Fritz |
| 10 Nov 2025 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 1 | Taylor Fritz |
| 24 Sep 2025 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 0 | Taylor Fritz |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Carlos Alcaraz | 3 - 1 | Taylor Fritz |
| 20 Sep 2024 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 0 | Taylor Fritz |
| 20 Mar 2023 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 0 | Taylor Fritz |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No bookmaker lines stored. | |||||