| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 55.7% | 64% | -8.4% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 59.3% | 40.7% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 57.8% | 42.2% |
| logistic | 49.6% | 50.4% |
| Michele Ribecai | Filippo Romano | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1571 | 1549 |
| Surface Elo | 1571 | 1549 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.13 | 1.22 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 0.78 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 23 Oct | A | Filip Misolic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Max Houkes | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Jacopo Vasami | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Filippo Romano | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Oriol Roca Batalla | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Sandro Kopp | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Oct | A | Matthew William Donald | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Yanaki Milev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Filip Cristian Jianu | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Michele Ribecai | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Filippo Romano | 2 - 1 | Michele Ribecai |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.35 | 42.5% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.56 | 64.1% | 25 Oct 06:15 |