| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 65.0% | 35% | +29.7% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 88.0% | 61% | +27.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 82.3% | 46% | +35.9% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.1% | 71% | -12.3% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 58.7% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 81.7% | 11.3% | 7.0% |
| xgboost | 69.1% | 16.6% | 14.2% |
| logistic | 86.2% | 11.9% | 1.9% |
| PSV Eindhoven | Graafschap | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1841 | 1409 |
| Surface Elo | 1841 | 1409 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.50 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 13 | 2698 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 26 Sep | A | NAC Breda | 2 - 4 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Twente | 2 - 3 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Twente | 2 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Vitesse | 1 - 3 | L |
| 13 Sep | H | Sparta Rotterdam | 4 - 1 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | FC Den Bosch | 1 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | NAC Breda | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 May | H | Ajax | 1 - 4 | L |
| 12 May | A | Vitesse | 1 - 6 | L |
| 23 Apr | H | FC Emmen | 1 - 0 | W |
| 14 Apr 2019 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 - 1 | Graafschap |
| 10 Nov 2018 | Graafschap | 1 - 4 | PSV Eindhoven |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.80 | 35.7% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.42 | 70.4% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.80 | 35.7% | 03 Oct 06:15 |