| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 36.8% | 49% | -12.5% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 40.0% | 43.8% |
| xgboost | 57.0% | 41.9% |
| logistic | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| Boston Bruins | Ottawa Senators | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1539 | 1542 |
| Surface Elo | 1539 | 1542 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.33 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 6 W · 0 D |
| 04 Oct | A | Minnesota Wild | 1 - 4 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Winnipeg Jets | 4 - 3 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | New York Rangers | 3 - 0 | W |
| 01 May | H | Buffalo Sabres | 1 - 4 | L |
| 28 Apr | A | Buffalo Sabres | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Toronto Maple Leafs | 3 - 2 | W |
| 25 Apr | H | Carolina Hurricanes | 2 - 4 | L |
| 23 Apr | H | Carolina Hurricanes | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Apr | A | Carolina Hurricanes | 2 - 3 | L |
| 18 Apr | A | Carolina Hurricanes | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Dec 2025 | Boston Bruins | 2 - 6 | Ottawa Senators |
| 14 Nov 2025 | Ottawa Senators | 5 - 3 | Boston Bruins |
| 07 Nov 2025 | Boston Bruins | 3 - 2 | Ottawa Senators |
| 27 Oct 2025 | Ottawa Senators | 7 - 2 | Boston Bruins |
| 13 Mar 2025 | Ottawa Senators | 6 - 3 | Boston Bruins |
| 24 Jan 2025 | Boston Bruins | 2 - 0 | Ottawa Senators |
| 18 Jan 2025 | Ottawa Senators | 6 - 5 | Boston Bruins |
| 10 Nov 2024 | Boston Bruins | 2 - 3 | Ottawa Senators |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | home | 2.03 | 49.3% | 05 Oct 18:20 |
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | away | 1.88 | 53.2% | 05 Oct 18:20 |