| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.8% | 71% | -16.6% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 78.0% | 88% | -10.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 70.0% | 91% | -20.8% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.1% | 69% | -3.3% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 59.0% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 59.0% | 20.6% | 20.4% |
| xgboost | 54.3% | 21.9% | 23.8% |
| logistic | 50.7% | 25.4% | 23.9% |
| St Etienne | Rodez | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1552 | 1502 |
| Surface Elo | 1552 | 1502 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| Season points per game | 2.29 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.71 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.14 | 2.29 |
| Rest days | 21 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 3 W · 2 D |
| 19 Sep | A | Metz | 2 - 2 | D |
| 12 Sep | A | Dunkerque | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Montpellier | 3 - 1 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | Dijon | 3 - 2 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | Grenoble | 4 - 0 | W |
| 18 Sep | H | Nancy | 3 - 4 | L |
| 11 Sep | H | Grenoble | 0 - 1 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Metz | 1 - 4 | L |
| 28 Aug | H | Pau FC | 2 - 2 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | Nantes | 5 - 2 | W |
| 02 May 2026 | Rodez | 2 - 1 | St Etienne |
| 16 Aug 2025 | St Etienne | 4 - 0 | Rodez |
| 10 May 2024 | St Etienne | 1 - 1 | Rodez |
| 12 Aug 2023 | Rodez | 2 - 1 | St Etienne |
| 29 Apr 2023 | Rodez | 1 - 1 | St Etienne |
| 12 Nov 2022 | St Etienne | 0 - 2 | Rodez |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 7.00 | 14.3% | 10 Oct 19:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.50 | 22.2% | 10 Oct 19:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.33 | 75.2% | 10 Oct 19:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.48 | 67.6% | 10 Oct 19:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.60 | 38.5% | 10 Oct 19:00 |